Steps that Leads to Economic Crisis

Steps to Economic Crisis

No	Indicator	Up/Down	Timing
1	Corporate Bankruptcy	UP	_ 10-12 month
2	Housing Price	Down	_ 9 month
3	Housing Start Nahb Housing Index New Homes Consumer Spending	Down	_ 6 Month
4	Corporate Profit Consumer Sentiment (< 80)	Down	_ 3 month
5	Wage Growth Job Offering Job vacancy Philadelphia Fed index Cointinuing Claim	Down Down Down Down UP	0-1 Month
6	Initial Claims (> 350,000) ISM Manufacturing (<50)	Up Down	+2 Month +2 Month
7	Personal Spending	Down	+3 Month
8	Personal saving Vehicle sales Unemployment rate Retail Sales	UP Down UP Down	+6-9 months

Crisis = WHEN GDP negative