Daily Market Analysis -20150717

Market Overview

all the 3 indexes were up altogether with those european indexes after some good news from Greece.

What was happening

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished Thursday on a higher note with the Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%) and S&P 500 (+0.8%) posting solid gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) ended the day closer to its flat line.

Equity indices spiked at the start, responding to overnight strength in the futures market. Shortly after yesterday's close, Intel (INTC 29.90, +0.21) and Netflix (NFLX 115.81, +17.68) reported better than expected results, which led to a surge in Nasdaq futures in particular.

Earnings notwithstanding, Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures received a second boost after the Greek parliament voted 229-64-6 in favor of austerity measures that will allow bailout negotiations to continue with the country expected to receive EUR86 billion in rescue funds. Furthermore, the European Central Bank, which held a policy meeting today, raised the country's allowance to Emergency Liquidity Assistance by EUR900 million, which will pave the way for Greek banks to open as soon as Monday.

As the U.S. opening bell approached, the focus shifted back to earnings with Citigroup (C 58.59, +2.13) and Goldman Sachs (GS 211.18, -1.78) reporting better than expected results. However, Goldman Sachs spent the day in negative territory, snapping its five-day streak. Still, the financial sector (+1.0%) ended among today's leaders, but Goldman's relative weakness kept the Dow under pressure.

Likewise, UnitedHealth (UNH 124.93, -0.93) also pressured the Dow despite reporting better than expected results. The stock narrowed its loss to 0.7% by day's end after being down as much as 3.1% following yesterday's record close. Furthermore, UnitedHealth pressured the health care sector (+0.5%), but hospital names also weighed. For instance, Community Health (CYH 60.99, -1.42) and Universal Health (UHS 141.25, -1.18) lost 2.3% and 0.8%, respectively, after Keybanc Capital Markets downgraded both listings to 'Sector Weight' from 'Overweight.' Biotechnology, however, picked up the slack with iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 395.67, +4.91) climbing 1.3%. That strength, combined with a solid showing from the technology sector (+1.3%) kept the Nasaq ahead of the broader market throughout the day.

Large cap technology components like Apple (AAPL 128.51, +1.69), Google (GOOGL 601.78, +17.82) and Microsoft (MSFT 46.66, +0.90) climbed between 1.3% and 3.1% while Intel alternated between gains and losses before settling higher by 0.7%. Other chipmakers struggled, evidenced by the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which eked out a modest gain (+0.2%).

Overall five sectors ended ahead of the broader market, but only two cyclical groups displayed relative strength while consumer staples (+1.0%), telecom services (+1.4%), and utilities (+1.5%) outperformed on the countercyclical side.

On the downside, the materials sector (-0.3%) spent the day in negative territory amid broad weakness while the energy sector (+0.1%) was able to stay in the green even though crude oil fell 1.0% to $50.91/bbl.

Treasuries displayed losses during overnight action, but a morning recovery returned the benchmark 10-yr yield to unchanged by the close (2.35%).

Today's participation was a bit lighter than yesterday with 723 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Initial Claims, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Philadelphia Fed Survey: 

• The initial claims level declined to 281,000 for the week ending July 11 from a downwardly revised 296,000 (from 297,000) while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 283,000 
  • The four-week moving average increased to 282,500 from 279,250, which is the first time that the four-week moving has surpassed 280,000 since the end of April 
  • The continuing claims level decreased to 2.215 mln for the week ending July 4 from a downwardly revised 2.327 mln (from 2.334 mln) while the consensus expected a decrease to 2.285 mln 
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for July rose to 60 from 59 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the index to hold at 59
• The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey declined to 5.7 in July from 15.2 in June while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop to 12.5 
  • There was a general softening in manufacturing conditions across all areas with four out of the nine survey subcomponents contracting in July 
  • The Shipments Index declined to 4.4 in July from 14.3 while Employment conditions were notably weak 
    • The Number of Employees Index turned negative, falling from 3.8 in June to -0.4 in July 
    • The Average Employee Workweek Index dropped to 4.0 from 4.7 

Tomorrow, June CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and June Housing Starts (consensus 1.12 million)/Building Permits (expected 1.15 million) will be reported at 8:30 ET while the preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for July (consensus 96.5) will be released at 10:00 ET.

Source(Briefing.com)

Market Diaries

Money Supply

Money supply at commercial bank & thrift institution were down, this is a sign of another upcoming market correction.

Technical Analysis

Support: 18000

Resistance18200

Earning Watch

Google, netflix, intel and banking (BAC, C, GS, JPM) shows great outlook.

Forecast

With light news limited to CPI & michigan Survey, I reckon there will be some proift taking on the market. 

Direction for Friday is Down

Accuracy 75% (3/4)

Daily Market Analysis 20150716

Yesterday market Overview

Market were closed at almost flat line

 [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages snapped their four-day win streak on Wednesday as the market slipped into the red during afternoon action. It is worth noting that the late slip occurred amid reports of protesters clashing with riot gear-clad police in Syntagma Square in Athens ahead of this evening's parliamentary vote on the debt agreement with the eurozone. The S&P 500 shed 0.1% to narrow its weekly gain to 1.5%.

Equity indices started the day near their flat lines, seeing little reaction to a busy overnight session that featured the release of China's Q2 GDP (+7.0% year-over-year; consensus 6.9%) and news that the Bank of Japan lowered its GDP forecast for the fiscal year to 1.7% from 2.0%.

Stocks climbed out of the gate, but the S&P 500 could not extend too far above its flat line as most sectors displayed early losses; however, relative strength in financials (+0.8%), health care (+0.1%), and technology (+0.1%) kept the market in positive territory into the afternoon.

The financial sector held the lead throughout the session thanks to support from three large components. Specifically, Bank of America (BAC 17.68, +0.55) PNC (PNC 98.32, +0.82), and U.S. Bancorp (USB 45.53, +1.65) gained between 0.8% and 3.8% after reporting earnings. Bank of America and PNC reported better than expected results while U.S. Bancorp's report was in-line with estimates.

Unlike financials, the other two pockets of early strength could not hold gains into the afternoon. The health care sector ended right below its flat line, which masked relative strength in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 390.76, +2.82) added 0.7% after being up as much as 2.3% in the early going. Still, the industry group finished ahead of the broader market thanks to a 7.0% spike in Celgene (CELG 131.39, +8.54) after the company raised its guidance and announced the acquisition of Receptos (RCPT 230.08, +22.90) for $232/share in cash.

The intraday strength in biotechnology kept the Nasdaq Composite in the lead, but the index slipped behind the S&P 500 during afternoon action. The top-weighted tech sector (+0.1%) held up relatively well thanks to a 1.0% gain in the shares of Apple (AAPL 126.82, +1.21), but high-beta chipmakers struggled with the PHLX Semiconductor Index falling 0.6%. Industry heavyweight-Intel (INTC 29.70, +0.05)-fared better than its counterparts, adding 0.2% ahead of its quarterly report.

Elsewhere, the energy sector (-1.6%) spent the day behind the remaining groups, dropping to lows in late afternoon action. The growth-sensitive group was pressured by crude oil, which fell 3.1% to $51.40/bbl.

In all likelihood, greenback strength was a headwind for oil as the Dollar Index (97.15, +0.50) climbed 0.5%. The index spiked above its overnight high after the release of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee. The testimony was largely uneventful with Ms. Yellen reiterating the Fed's intention to begin raising the fed funds rate in 2015 if economic conditions hold up.

Treasuries set their lows after the release of Chair Yellen's prepared remarks before advancing into the afternoon with the 10-yr yield falling five basis points to 2.35%.

Today's trading volume was ahead of totals observed earlier in the week as more than 750 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included PPI, Empire Manufacturing survey, Industrial Production, and the MBA Mortgage Index: 

• Producer prices increased 0.4% in June after increasing 0.5% in May while the Briefing.com Consensus expected an increase of 0.3% 
  • Gasoline prices increased 4.3% in June after a 17.0% gain in May 
  • Food prices rose 0.6% in June, down from a 0.8% increase in May 
  • Excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.3% in June after increasing 0.1% in May while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1% 
• The Empire Manufacturing Survey for July registered a reading of 3.9, which was above the prior month's reading of -2.0 and above the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which was pegged at 3.0 
• Industrial production increased 0.3% in June after declining 0.2% in May while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.2% 
  • That was the first increase since a 0.2% gain in March, and the largest increase since a 1.1% gain in November 2014 
    • The increase in industrial production came from a combination of warmer temperatures and higher energy prices, not a pickup in demand from the manufacturing sector 
• The weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 1.9% to follow last week's 4.6% increase 

Tomorrow, weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 283K) will be reported at 8:30 ET while the Philadelphia Fed Survey for July (consensus 12.0) and July NAHB Housing Market Index (expected 59) will both be released at 10:00 ET. 

Market Diaries

MONEY FLOW

There's estimated  Money inflow into Equity market as of $ 2.16 Billion

MARKET SENTIMENT

There's improving bullish senitment and declining bearish senitment as of july 16 compare to july 9

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Daily Chart

Support: 17973

Resistance: 18200

Weekly Chart

Earning Watch

Today's Big Earnings include GS, EBAY, UNH

Daily Forecast

Stock arround the globe shows positive  indication today, will all green in Europe and most in Asia, we saw good progression over the greece

Direction for Thursday is UP

Forecast accuracy is 60% (2/3)

Daily Market Analysis 20150715

Market Overview

Most Of the major indexes gain and now above their 50 days moving averages

Bullish percent index rebound from the low

From Briefing.com

[BRIEFING.COM] The major average registered their fourth consecutive advance on Tuesday with the S&P 500 climbing 0.5%. The benchmark index reclaimed its 50-day moving average (2,100) at the start of the session while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) outperformed throughout the trading day. 

Equity indices began near their flat lines after overnight reports from Vienna revealed that P5+1 negotiators agreed to a nuclear deal with Iranian representatives. The news had little impact on the market, but crude oil was down about 2.0% overnight amid expectations that global oil supplies will increase once Iran begins selling its oil on the open market. However, an intraday rebound resulted in crude oil climbing 1.7% to $53.06/bbl. Accordingly, the energy sector (+0.8%) climbed alongside crude oil to end the day among the leaders, while only the health care sector (+1.0%) had a better showing. 

The influential health care space finished the day well ahead of other countercyclical groups even though Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 99.78, -0.49) slumped 0.5% despite reporting a two-cent beat. However, biotechnology filled the void withiShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 387.94, +8.79) spiking 2.3%, which contributed to the relative strength in the Nasdaq. 

Furthermore, high-beta chipmakers also helped the Nasdaq stay ahead of the broader market with the PHLX Semiconductor Index rallying 1.1%. Micron (MU 19.61, +2.00) was the standout performer, soaring 11.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported Micron may have received a $21.00/share takeover offer from Tsinghua Unigroup. As for large cap tech names, Apple (AAPL 125.61, -0.05), Microsoft (MSFT 45.62, +0.08), and Oracle (ORCL 40.78, -0.02) ended near their flat lines while Google (GOOGL 584.18, +12.45) outperformed, climbing 2.2%. 

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, financials (+0.4%) spent the day behind the broader market even though JPMorgan Chase(JPM 69.04, +0.95) and Wells Fargo (WFC 57.25, +0.51) posted respective gains of 1.4% and 0.9% in reaction to earnings. JPMorgan Chase delivered a bottom-line beat on below-consensus revenue while Wells Fargo matched earnings expectations on revenue that missed estimates. 

On the downside, the utilities sector (-0.1%) was the lone decliner, narrowing its July gain to 3.6%. 

Treasuries spiked in the morning following a disappointing Retail Sales report. The 10-yr note settled just below its high with the benchmark yield falling five basis points to 2.40%. 

Today's participation was in-line with recent totals as 680 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.  

Economic data included Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, and Business Inventories: 

• Retail sales declined 0.3% in June after increasing a downwardly revised 1.0% (from 1.2%) in May while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3% 
  • The motor vehicle manufacturers reported that unit sales declined to 17.2 million SAAR in June from 17.8 million SAAR in May, which translated into a sizable 1.1% decline in sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers 
  • Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales declined 0.1% in June after increasing a downwardly revised 0.8% (from 1.0%) in May while the consensus expected an increase of 0.5% 
  • Core sales, which exclude motor vehicle dealers, gasoline stations, and building material and supply stores, declined 0.1% in June after increasing 0.6% in May 
• Export prices, excluding agriculture, decreased 0.1% in June after increasing 0.7% in the prior reading 
  • Excluding oil, import prices decreased 0.2%, which followed last month's unchanged reading 
• Business inventories increased 0.3% in May after increasing an unrevised 0.4% in April while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.2% 
• The inventory changes from manufacturers (0.0%) and merchant wholesalers (0.8%) were known prior to the release. The only new information was that retailer inventories were flat in May after increasing 0.6% in April. 
• Inventory declines from motor vehicle and parts retailers (-0.2%) and furniture and appliances retailers (-0.3%) were offset by increases from general merchandise stores (0.5%) and building material and supply stores (0.2%) 

Source (Briefing.com)

Market Diaries

Market Mover

Most of tech companies slumps due to weaker earnings, such as AMD, Tesla, Micron, while airline improve, banking like JPM & Wells fargo profit surge, railroad CSX corporation also beats estimate. PepsiCo beats estimate, yum brand growth slows due to China slowth

China GDP growth beats estimate at 7%. and housing price increase by 12%, while Japan GDP outlook is +1.7% from 2%. and Japan keeps monatery policy unchanged as expected.

Earning in focus for today would be from BAC, Netflix, Intel, Delta Airlines.

Oil was down 2% last night, but today it;s up more than $53. 

Forecast

Expect to see some good progress over the Greece, Direction for Wednesday is UP

Forecast accuracy 100% (2/2)

Daily Market Analysis- 20150714

Yesterday Market Overview

Here are some note on what happened on monday from Briefing.com website 

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began the trading week on an upbeat note with the S&P 500 (+1.1%) registering the bulk of its 23-point gain shortly after the opening bell. The benchmark index padded that advance during the final hour, settling just below its 50-day moving average (2,100). 
Equity indices spiked at the start after lengthy weekend negotiations between Greek representatives and eurozone officials produced a framework for the third rescue package for Greece. The agreement, which includes EUR25 billion in bank recapitalization funds, was cheered by global equity markets, but it is worth noting that the full bailout will be discussed once the country's government passes a series of reforms on Wednesday. The far-reaching concessions will require Greece to streamline value-added taxes, broaden its tax base to increase revenue, curtail pension costs, and privatize public assets worth as much as 50 billion euros. 
Global risk assets surged in reaction to the developments while outflows from the Treasury market weighed on the 10-yr note, sending its yield higher by three basis points to 2.43% after testing the 2.47% level in the early morning. 
Interestingly, the euro only saw a brief spike that was followed by heavy selling with the single currency sliding 1.4% against the dollar to 1.1000. As a result, the Dollar Index (96.82, +0.80) climbed 0.8%, erasing last week's decline. 
All ten sectors ended in the green with five groups adding 1.0% or more. Heavily-weighted sectors fueled today's advance with the technology sector (+1.6%) holding the lead throughout the session. Large-cap sector components like Apple (AAPL 125.66, +2.38), Facebook (FB 90.10, +2.15), Google (GOOGL 571.73, +15.62), and Microsoft (MSFT 45.53, +0.92) spiked between 1.9% and 2.8% while Seagate (STX 46.28, +0.33) advanced 0.7% despite lowering its Q4 revenue and gross margin guidance. As for chipmakers, the high-beta group struggled to keep pace with the sector, but the PHLX Semiconductor Index still added 0.8%. 
Elsewhere among influential groups, the consumer discretionary sector (+1.5%) finished right behind technology while financials (+1.1%) and industrials (+1.0%) ended near the broader market. Also of note, the health care sector (+0.8%) finished behind the broader market, which masked relative strength in biotechnology, evidenced by a 1.6% gain in iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 378.89, +6.09). 
Similar to health care, telecom services (+0.6%) and utilities (unch) underperformed while the consumer staples sector (+1.0%) settled just behind the S&P 500. Thanks to today's gain, the staples sector is now up 4.2% for the month, trading well ahead of the remaining nine groups. 
Today's participation was comparable to recent totals as more than 730 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.  

Today's Economic data was limited to the Treasury Budget statement for June, which showed a surplus of $51.80 billion while the Briefing.com consensus expected a surplus of $51.00 billion. The Treasury data are not seasonally adjusted, so the June surplus cannot be compared to the $82.40 billion deficit recorded in May. 
Source (Briefing.com)

Market Breadth

Volume is quite well above average on NYSE.

SECTOR

All sectors are now above 50 days- moving average, except material & Energy.

TREASURY YIELD CURVE

FORECAST

Today's data will be limited to June Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and Import/Export Prices for June will be released at 8:30 ET while the Business Inventories report for May will be reported at 10:00 ET (consensus 0.2%). (Source: Briefing.com)

With these light news, and some big names will report earning after market close, like J&J, JPM, CSX, While news from Greece will remain in the focus

I would reckon that today's market will be UP

Daily Accuracy 1/1 (100%)

Weekly Market Analysis Jul 13-17

Last week Preview

Last wee, Index was closed almost at flat line. here is the summary on what has happened on last week.

Looking at the volume is well above average, but ti shows that new low outpace new high in the weekly summary 424 vs 107.

While on friday itself, the volume is good also, well above 700 million shares traded. participation is quite normal.

Below chart shows the statistic of market breadth indicator where we can see that for the last few weeks the  new low is winning over new highm those altogether with the decline volume outpacing advance volume.

 Bullish sentiments among those indexes are tracked in the following chart, where at average, bullish percent index were at 60+%

SECTOR

The Above chart shows the winner of last week, where utilitizes and cons. staples are the biggest winner, while material & energy were the worse in the sector.

MONEY SUPPLY

The  following table shows the lastest money supply m1 at comercial bank and other instituion. it shows that money supply is increasing for the week ended in June 29, which is a good sign that it seems that the stock will rebound.

this hyphotestis were backed up with the reality that China government was trying to defend their stock market with injecting 500 Billion RMB.

Weekly Forecast

As most indexes at it's lower bolinger band and there's a big hope on the greece deal as well as China Government trying to protect their market, i thik this week is going to be a rebound. we should see some new development over the Greece. 

weekly Direction is UP